Manchester – Delivering Net Zero: Powering up the Transition to Greener Energy
The talk reviewed the technology initiatives required to “power op” the Green Economy and asked the question, “is the goal of reaching “Net Zero” emissions by 2050 achievable?”
On Wednesday 26th June 2024, Politics in Pubs Manchester met at the Welcome Inn, Bury Old Road, Whitefield, M45 6TA, Manchester. See here for location.
The meeting was led by Dave Lewis, who trained as a geologist graduating from University of Newcastle-upon-Tyne and Imperial College, London, in the mid-1970s. His professional career spanned 42 years working primarily in the oil & gas industry both internationally and in the UK. Since retiring in 2019 Dave has broadened his interests focusing on the transition towards greener energy and the impact of climate change on the environment.
Introduction
In 2008 the UK Climate Change Act set a target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80% in the year 2050 compared to 1990 levels. This target was amended in 2019 to achieve a 100% reduction in emissions i.e. “Net Zero”. Dave explained that this means less reliance on fossil fuels and a transition towards greener electricity.
Global warming
Human activity is often cited as a likely cause of global warming. Dave described how the Earth has been warming and cooling for billions of years and that extremes of heat can result in extinction of species. CO2 is thought by some to be a factor in global warming: the volume of CO2 in the air has increased from 280 parts per million to 410 parts per million since the industrial revolution.
Sources of energy
Dave outlined the principal sources of energy utilised across the world and explained that 81.5% originates from fossil fuels (e.g. natural gas, oil and coal). Almost 15% originates from low carbon renewables (e.g. wind, solar, hydropower, bioenergy), and the remainder from nuclear and hydro-electric sources. All global regions have a high reliance on fossil fuels for their primary energy consumption. China and Indian have the highest levels of energy consumption and emissions.
Transition to low carbon renewables
The building blocks of the UK government’s transition to low carbon renewables include a seven-fold increase in wind power, a five-fold increase in solar energy, and an upgrade and four-fold increase in the capacity of the National Grid. Seven per cent of energy will be derived from bioenergy (biomass, biofuels, biogas). Some of the low carbon energy sources (e.g. biomass, hydrogen, nuclear) generate the need for carbon capture and storage of CO2.
Dave suggested that tidal energy is renewable, predictable, and at its peak in winter but explained that major engineering and environmental challenges render it uncompetitive – the UK therefore does not have a tidal energy strategy.
What are politicians saying about Net Zero?
The UK government’s commitment to Net Zero by the year 2050 is already made. So there is little real difference between Labour and Conservative policies and the Net Zero agreement. The Liberal-Democrat polices on Net Zero are unclear. The Green party wants to cancel fossil fuel licences, remove oil and gas subsidies, and phase out nuclear energy.
Discussion
Some scientists lie. There is no crisis. Energy demand has been going down since 2009 because appliances are more efficient. The fear of blackouts is a lie, based on flawed modelling. We were told that May 2024 was the hottest May on record but it wasn’t true. The thermometers measuring surface temperature have been moved nearer to the ground. Conserving energy is a good thing – it makes people’s bills go down but it doesn’t affect the planet at all. The Net Zero target was changed in 2019 by one man (Chris Skidmore) with no debate.
Isn’t adaptation to temperature change the more important issue? Toronto, for example. What are the consequences of doing nothing? Why don’t we wait for someone else to find the answer?
There is a need to reduce hydrocarbons because they are a finite resource but the current ‘science’on this is debatable. Special interests have too much influence. Electric vehicles require extensive copper mining. Nobody produces a coherent ‘cradle to grave’ argument of the net benefits of the green agenda. We are being pushed in the wrong direction.
UK CO2 production has not reduced by 49%, it has been transferred overseas with our manufacturing. Fossil fuels are required for purposes other than energy – e.g. for plastic and medicines etc. We need baseline power but battery capability and grid scale storage capacity doesn’t exist. All these energy technologies are competing for land at the same time as the demand for new housing, food production and re-wilding. There is a pushback against Net Zero in Europe. Humans have been adapting to their environment for centuries. To date, no climate predictions have come true. Even the IPCC doesn’t say what the politicians are saying about climate change.
During the Cambrian era, CO2 was 8000 parts per million and it was accompanied by an explosion in life forms. Plants need CO2 – it is pumped into greenhouses to make them grow. Why are we panicking about CO2 being at 410 parts per million? The Earth is greening – it is the next ice-age we should be worrying about. No-one knows the truth cost of Net Zero proposals but there is lots of money to be made.
Would it be better if the UK utilised its own coal deposits e.g. from underneath the St. Helen’s area?
The concept of fossil fuels as a bad thing became a political idea which in turn could be turned into a sales drive to shareholders, like propaganda used to justify the Iraq war. Electric cars are bad for the environment.
Energy use may have decreased by 22% because of energy efficiency but what about the rise of AI and cryptocurrency which both use lots of energy?
How green is green energy, taking into account the mining and processing of minerals and the disposal of waste?
Why not tackle the big consumers of fossil fuels such as China – it would have much more impact. Much CO2 is released by volcanoes and missiles fired during military conflict. Nuclear energy is much cleaner and constant. Carbon capture is a myth – much money has been spent on research but there is still no solution. There is a real risk of a ‘lithium war’ – who will win access to the minerals used for battery production? There are no explanations for the pros and cons of Net Zero for the taxpayer.
Net Zero means re-aligning with an arbitrary target from the 1990s. What else could the UK have done with all the money spent in pursuit of this target? What can you not do with renewables that you can do with fossil fuels e.g. fly planes, produce primary steel? Are electric vehicles making any real difference when extra miles have to be driven in order to reach the nearest charger?
The green agenda is being used to manipulate people. Who decided we should do it? What input did we have? Is it really better for the planet? People are being paid to find the ‘right’ answers. What is the best form of ‘clean’ energy?
Human history has been a struggle to control nature – we currently have high quality lifestyles with no reason to drop our standards. Climate change may become a problem in the future but we won’t live long enough to know if the arguments we are currently having are right. In the meantime common-sense low-hanging fruit is within our grasp such as reducing car travel into Manchester city centre by offering alternatives. The insidious influence of politics and use of nudge techniques and arbitrary targets undermines people’s faith in what we might do anyway if it leads to a better lifestyle.
Dave’s comments: Being a leader/influencer in the climate debate is a good thing. The media unnecessarily promotes a sense of urgency about the situation. Mining is very intensive and causes pollution. In the case of scepticism about Net Zero, where do you go for the truth? Maybe the oil and gas industry shouldn’t be apologising – the UK is in danger of ignoring its own huge energy resources. Labour is proposing to spend £8.5 billion on green tech. The mining industry creates effluent which pollutes the environment – the industry also exploits miners, the land and communities. Net Zero is the UK’s response to the climate change issue. Why are hybrid vehicles being written off when they are able to meet the needs of short and long journeys? The UK is in a good place but we are in danger of being exploited if we don’t protect our energy base. How do we push back to use resources responsibly and allow the Earth to heal itself? Net Zero is not really attainable – it involves too much construction and uncertainty. We can’t really live without coal and gas.
Many thanks, Dave, for reviewing the technology initiatives proposed by the UK government to ‘power up’ its Net Zero targets, and for highlighting some of the problems with the ‘clean’ energy business and the Net Zero goal. As always, a big thank you to our lovely hosts at The Welcome Inn. Cheers all!
Forthcoming Events
Manchester – Cancelling Cancel Culture, Sunday 21st July 2024 2pm
Cancelling Cancel Culture will be meeting at the Briton’s Protection, Manchester from 2pm.
https://www.meetup.com/cancelling-cancel-culture-meetup/
Manchester – Politics in Pubs, Tuesday 23rd July 2024 7.30pm
Please join us at The Welcome Inn, Bury Old Road, Whitefield, Manchester M45 6TA from 7.30pm. See here for location. Please note change of day to Tuesdays.
Manchester – Comedy Unleashed, Thursday 4th July 2024 7pm (doors open at 6pm)
Last month we saw the launch of Comedy Unleashed in Manchester. It was a sell-out event. Hugely enjoyable. The next Manchester event will be on July 4th. You can get your tickets here.
https://comedyunleashed.co.uk/manchester-gigs/
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